The effects of the stock and bond market on economic growth in South Africa (2003-2017)
- Authors: Faiers, Jarryd Brad
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Capital market -- South Africa , Economic development -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48102 , vital:40486
- Description: Using quarterly data from 2003:Q3 to 2017:Q1, this study investigates the effect of the stock and bond markets on economic growth in South Africa. The variables used in the study pertain to South Africa and include the JSE All-Share Index, real effective exchange rate, bond market growth, investment expenditure, inflation rate, government expenditure and gross domestic product. The empirical study is guided by an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach which includes unit root tests for stationarity, bounds tests for cointegration and causality tests using the long run and short run error correction models. Diagnostic tests and stability tests are performed on the various econometric models. Tests include the Jarque-Bera test, Ramsey Reset Test, Whites test, CUSUM and CUSUM square test. The findings suggest that the stock market growth and bond market growth have displayed significantly different results with regards to their effects on economic growth. Stock market growth has had a positive impact on economic growth in the long run, whilst growth and development in the bond market does not have a statistically significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. The study provides a solid foundation for establishing the effects of the stock and bond market on economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Faiers, Jarryd Brad
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Capital market -- South Africa , Economic development -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48102 , vital:40486
- Description: Using quarterly data from 2003:Q3 to 2017:Q1, this study investigates the effect of the stock and bond markets on economic growth in South Africa. The variables used in the study pertain to South Africa and include the JSE All-Share Index, real effective exchange rate, bond market growth, investment expenditure, inflation rate, government expenditure and gross domestic product. The empirical study is guided by an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach which includes unit root tests for stationarity, bounds tests for cointegration and causality tests using the long run and short run error correction models. Diagnostic tests and stability tests are performed on the various econometric models. Tests include the Jarque-Bera test, Ramsey Reset Test, Whites test, CUSUM and CUSUM square test. The findings suggest that the stock market growth and bond market growth have displayed significantly different results with regards to their effects on economic growth. Stock market growth has had a positive impact on economic growth in the long run, whilst growth and development in the bond market does not have a statistically significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. The study provides a solid foundation for establishing the effects of the stock and bond market on economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The impact of macroeconomic factors on the South African equity market
- Authors: Mpuku, Cwayita
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models , Capital market -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/32238 , vital:31990
- Description: The South African equity market is the largest equity market in Africa and plays an important role in the development of the South African economy. It is a relatively large source of finance for companies that want to invest in capital and expand their businesses. Firms that are listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) are therefore privy to an additional source of capital funds in addition having access to the credit markets. The development of a country’s equity market gives an indication of the extent to which firms have access to long-term funds which are needed for investment in production of goods and services and the growth of the economy. Historical evidence shows that downturns in the equity markets can disrupt economic performance of countries. The 1929 global depression and the 2008 global recession are examples of economic disruptions that have origins in the equity markets (Mishkin, 2013:190). An understanding of the risk factors that drive an equity market is therefore beneficial to both individuals and institutions. Individuals and institutions participate in the equity market by buying and selling shares of companies that are listed on the JSE. About 40 per cent of shares on the JSE are held by institutional investors such as pension funds and unit trusts (Ambrosi, 2014). The equity market therefore has an impact on people’s savings and pension funds invested by intermediary institutions. Investors who participate in the equity market do so with the expectation of receiving returns on their investment, but such returns don’t come without risk.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Mpuku, Cwayita
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models , Capital market -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/32238 , vital:31990
- Description: The South African equity market is the largest equity market in Africa and plays an important role in the development of the South African economy. It is a relatively large source of finance for companies that want to invest in capital and expand their businesses. Firms that are listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) are therefore privy to an additional source of capital funds in addition having access to the credit markets. The development of a country’s equity market gives an indication of the extent to which firms have access to long-term funds which are needed for investment in production of goods and services and the growth of the economy. Historical evidence shows that downturns in the equity markets can disrupt economic performance of countries. The 1929 global depression and the 2008 global recession are examples of economic disruptions that have origins in the equity markets (Mishkin, 2013:190). An understanding of the risk factors that drive an equity market is therefore beneficial to both individuals and institutions. Individuals and institutions participate in the equity market by buying and selling shares of companies that are listed on the JSE. About 40 per cent of shares on the JSE are held by institutional investors such as pension funds and unit trusts (Ambrosi, 2014). The equity market therefore has an impact on people’s savings and pension funds invested by intermediary institutions. Investors who participate in the equity market do so with the expectation of receiving returns on their investment, but such returns don’t come without risk.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
The relevance and fairness of the JSE ALTX PRE-IPO share pricing methodologies
- Authors: Magliolo, Jacques
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Capital market -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9018 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018652
- Description: This three year indepth study was prompted after a decade of working as a corporate advisor for numerous stockbroking firms' corporate advisory and listing divisions. An overwhelming lack of discernible pricing methodology for IPOs on the JSE's Main Board and failed Venture Capital and Development Capital Markets was transferred to the new Alternative Exchange (AltX). This prompted lengthly discussions with former head of JSE's AltX Noah Greenhill. Such discussions are set out in this dissertation and relate to pricing methodologies and the lack of guidance or legislation as set out in the JSE's schedule 21 of Listing requirements. The focus of this dissertation is thus centred on whether the current adopted methodologies to establish a fair and reasonable pre-IPO share price is effective. To achieve this, global pricing methodologies were assessed within the framework of various valuation techniques used by South African Designated Advisors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Magliolo, Jacques
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Capital market -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9018 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018652
- Description: This three year indepth study was prompted after a decade of working as a corporate advisor for numerous stockbroking firms' corporate advisory and listing divisions. An overwhelming lack of discernible pricing methodology for IPOs on the JSE's Main Board and failed Venture Capital and Development Capital Markets was transferred to the new Alternative Exchange (AltX). This prompted lengthly discussions with former head of JSE's AltX Noah Greenhill. Such discussions are set out in this dissertation and relate to pricing methodologies and the lack of guidance or legislation as set out in the JSE's schedule 21 of Listing requirements. The focus of this dissertation is thus centred on whether the current adopted methodologies to establish a fair and reasonable pre-IPO share price is effective. To achieve this, global pricing methodologies were assessed within the framework of various valuation techniques used by South African Designated Advisors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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