Bitcoin's potential for use as a hedge against adverse market conditions in South Africa
- Authors: Faba, Yonela
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Bitcoin , Hedging (Finance) , Cryptocurrencies , Macroeconomics , Accounting and price fluctuations , Economic forecasting South Africa , Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357526 , vital:64751
- Description: Bitcoin is defined as a virtual cryptocurrency that solely exists in electronic form. Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 by a programmer or a group of programmers who used the alias; Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin is a decentralised, digital, partially anonymous currency that is not backed by any government or legal entity, and it is not redeemable for gold or any other commodity. The adoption of Bitcoin has been steadily growing over the years, with the earliest adopters being WikiLeaks and the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Ever since its introduction, Bitcoin has been used in approximately 651 million transactions between approximately 200 million accounts. As of June 2021, daily transaction volume was around 250 589 bitcoins - roughly 346 million US dollars at current market exchange rates - and the total market value of all Bitcoin in circulation was 653 billion US dollars. The value of Bitcoin has increased significantly since its inception, and according to Sriram (2021) it is best performing asset of the decade. This prompted the present study, as it is crucial to ascertain whether Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against adverse market conditions in the South African context, conditions like increases in inflation, stock market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. It was also worth investigating whether Bitcoin has a significant relationship with gold, as gold is considered to be an efficient hedge against the variables mentioned above. The characteristic of a good hedge include retaining or increasing value under inflationary pressure, stocks market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. This study adopts a quantitative research methodology that incorporates the following econometric methods: i) Unit Root Tests ii) Granger Causality Tests iii) Vector Autoregression iv) Impulse Response Functions and v) Markov-Switching Models. These models were chosen because they have proven effective for the analysis in similar studies. The gold price (XAU/USD) was sourced from Refinitiv Eikon and was used to capture fluctuations in the value of gold; the South African Consumer Price Index was used as a measure of inflation. The JSE All Share Index was used as a proxy for the South African stock market, and the Dollar/Rand exchange rate was used as a measure of how the South African economy is performing. The study found that there was no significant relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices. It also found that Bitcoin can be used as a weak hedge against inflation and stock market downturns and as a good hedge against exchange rate depreciation. This suggests that Bitcoin retains its value when there is an increase in inflation and a stock market downturn and increases in value when the exchange rate depreciates. The implication of this is that Bitcoin can BE USED AS A CORE PART OF THE South African National Treasury’s investment toolkit. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
- Authors: Faba, Yonela
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Bitcoin , Hedging (Finance) , Cryptocurrencies , Macroeconomics , Accounting and price fluctuations , Economic forecasting South Africa , Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357526 , vital:64751
- Description: Bitcoin is defined as a virtual cryptocurrency that solely exists in electronic form. Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 by a programmer or a group of programmers who used the alias; Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin is a decentralised, digital, partially anonymous currency that is not backed by any government or legal entity, and it is not redeemable for gold or any other commodity. The adoption of Bitcoin has been steadily growing over the years, with the earliest adopters being WikiLeaks and the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Ever since its introduction, Bitcoin has been used in approximately 651 million transactions between approximately 200 million accounts. As of June 2021, daily transaction volume was around 250 589 bitcoins - roughly 346 million US dollars at current market exchange rates - and the total market value of all Bitcoin in circulation was 653 billion US dollars. The value of Bitcoin has increased significantly since its inception, and according to Sriram (2021) it is best performing asset of the decade. This prompted the present study, as it is crucial to ascertain whether Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against adverse market conditions in the South African context, conditions like increases in inflation, stock market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. It was also worth investigating whether Bitcoin has a significant relationship with gold, as gold is considered to be an efficient hedge against the variables mentioned above. The characteristic of a good hedge include retaining or increasing value under inflationary pressure, stocks market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. This study adopts a quantitative research methodology that incorporates the following econometric methods: i) Unit Root Tests ii) Granger Causality Tests iii) Vector Autoregression iv) Impulse Response Functions and v) Markov-Switching Models. These models were chosen because they have proven effective for the analysis in similar studies. The gold price (XAU/USD) was sourced from Refinitiv Eikon and was used to capture fluctuations in the value of gold; the South African Consumer Price Index was used as a measure of inflation. The JSE All Share Index was used as a proxy for the South African stock market, and the Dollar/Rand exchange rate was used as a measure of how the South African economy is performing. The study found that there was no significant relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices. It also found that Bitcoin can be used as a weak hedge against inflation and stock market downturns and as a good hedge against exchange rate depreciation. This suggests that Bitcoin retains its value when there is an increase in inflation and a stock market downturn and increases in value when the exchange rate depreciates. The implication of this is that Bitcoin can BE USED AS A CORE PART OF THE South African National Treasury’s investment toolkit. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
A decision-making model to guide securing blockchain deployments
- Authors: Cronje, Gerhard Roets
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Blockchains (Databases) , Bitcoin , Cryptocurrencies , Distributed databases , Computer networks Security measures , Computer networks Security measures Decision making , Ethereum
- Language: English
- Type: Masters theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/188865 , vital:44793
- Description: Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudo-identity accredit with the paper that sparked the implementation of Bitcoin, is famously quoted as remarking, electronically of course, that “If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try and convince you, sorry” (Tsapis, 2019, p. 1). What is noticeable, 12 years after the famed Satoshi paper that initiated Bitcoin (Nakamoto, 2008), is that blockchain at the very least has staying power and potentially wide application. A lesser known figure Marc Kenisberg, founder of Bitcoin Chaser which is one of the many companies formed around the Bitcoin ecosystem, summarised it well saying “…Blockchain is the tech - Bitcoin is merely the first mainstream manifestation of its potential” (Tsapis, 2019, p. 1). With blockchain still trying to reach its potential and still maturing on its way towards a mainstream technology the main question that arises for security professionals is how do I ensure we do it securely? This research seeks to address that question by proposing a decision-making model that can be used by a security professional to guide them through ensuring appropriate security for blockchain deployments. This research is certainly not the first attempt at discussing the security of the blockchain and will not be the last, as the technology around blockchain and distributed ledger technology is still rapidly evolving. What this research does try to achieve is not to delve into extremely specific areas of blockchain security, or get bogged down in technical details, but to provide a reference framework that aims to cover all the major areas to be considered. The approach followed was to review the literature regarding blockchain and to identify the main security areas to be addressed. It then proposes a decision-making model and tests the model against a fictitious but relevant real-world example. It concludes with learnings from this research. The reader can be the judge, but the model aims to be a practical valuable resource to be used by any security professional, to navigate the security aspects logically and understandably when being involved in a blockchain deployment. In contrast to the Satoshi quote, this research tries to convince the reader and assist him/her in understanding the security choices related to every blockchain deployment. , Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Computer Science, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
- Authors: Cronje, Gerhard Roets
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Blockchains (Databases) , Bitcoin , Cryptocurrencies , Distributed databases , Computer networks Security measures , Computer networks Security measures Decision making , Ethereum
- Language: English
- Type: Masters theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/188865 , vital:44793
- Description: Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudo-identity accredit with the paper that sparked the implementation of Bitcoin, is famously quoted as remarking, electronically of course, that “If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try and convince you, sorry” (Tsapis, 2019, p. 1). What is noticeable, 12 years after the famed Satoshi paper that initiated Bitcoin (Nakamoto, 2008), is that blockchain at the very least has staying power and potentially wide application. A lesser known figure Marc Kenisberg, founder of Bitcoin Chaser which is one of the many companies formed around the Bitcoin ecosystem, summarised it well saying “…Blockchain is the tech - Bitcoin is merely the first mainstream manifestation of its potential” (Tsapis, 2019, p. 1). With blockchain still trying to reach its potential and still maturing on its way towards a mainstream technology the main question that arises for security professionals is how do I ensure we do it securely? This research seeks to address that question by proposing a decision-making model that can be used by a security professional to guide them through ensuring appropriate security for blockchain deployments. This research is certainly not the first attempt at discussing the security of the blockchain and will not be the last, as the technology around blockchain and distributed ledger technology is still rapidly evolving. What this research does try to achieve is not to delve into extremely specific areas of blockchain security, or get bogged down in technical details, but to provide a reference framework that aims to cover all the major areas to be considered. The approach followed was to review the literature regarding blockchain and to identify the main security areas to be addressed. It then proposes a decision-making model and tests the model against a fictitious but relevant real-world example. It concludes with learnings from this research. The reader can be the judge, but the model aims to be a practical valuable resource to be used by any security professional, to navigate the security aspects logically and understandably when being involved in a blockchain deployment. In contrast to the Satoshi quote, this research tries to convince the reader and assist him/her in understanding the security choices related to every blockchain deployment. , Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Computer Science, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
An investigation into the current state of web based cryptominers and cryptojacking
- Authors: Len, Robert
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Cryptocurrencies , Malware (Computer software) , Computer networks -- Security measures , Computer networks -- Monitoring , Cryptomining , Coinhive , Cryptojacking
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178248 , vital:42924
- Description: The aim of this research was to conduct a review of the current state and extent of surreptitious crypto mining software and its prevalence as a means for income generation. Income is generated through the use of a viewer's browser to execute custom JavaScript code to mine cryptocurrencies such as Monero and Bitcoin. The research aimed to measure the prevalence of illicit mining scripts being utilised for “in-browser" cryptojacking while further analysing the ecosystems that support the cryptomining environment. The extent of the research covers aspects such as the content (or type) of the sites hosting malicious “in-browser" cryptomining software as well as the occurrences of currencies utilised in the cryptographic mining and the analysis of cryptographic mining code samples. This research aims to compare the results of previous work with the current state of affairs since the closure of Coinhive in March 2018. Coinhive were at the time the market leader in such web based mining services. Beyond the analysis of the prevalence of cryptomining on the web today, research into the methodologies and techniques used to detect and counteract cryptomining are also conducted. This includes the most recent developments in malicious JavaScript de-obfuscation as well as cryptomining signature creation and detection. Methodologies for heuristic JavaScript behaviour identification and subsequent identification of potential malicious out-liars are also included within the research of the countermeasure analysis. The research revealed that although no longer functional, Coinhive remained as the most prevalent script being used for “in-browser" cryptomining services. While remaining the most prevalent, there was however a significant decline in overall occurrences compared to when coinhive.com was operational. Analysis of the ecosystem hosting \in-browser" mining websites was found to be distributed both geographically as well as in terms of domain categorisations. , Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Computer Science, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Len, Robert
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Cryptocurrencies , Malware (Computer software) , Computer networks -- Security measures , Computer networks -- Monitoring , Cryptomining , Coinhive , Cryptojacking
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178248 , vital:42924
- Description: The aim of this research was to conduct a review of the current state and extent of surreptitious crypto mining software and its prevalence as a means for income generation. Income is generated through the use of a viewer's browser to execute custom JavaScript code to mine cryptocurrencies such as Monero and Bitcoin. The research aimed to measure the prevalence of illicit mining scripts being utilised for “in-browser" cryptojacking while further analysing the ecosystems that support the cryptomining environment. The extent of the research covers aspects such as the content (or type) of the sites hosting malicious “in-browser" cryptomining software as well as the occurrences of currencies utilised in the cryptographic mining and the analysis of cryptographic mining code samples. This research aims to compare the results of previous work with the current state of affairs since the closure of Coinhive in March 2018. Coinhive were at the time the market leader in such web based mining services. Beyond the analysis of the prevalence of cryptomining on the web today, research into the methodologies and techniques used to detect and counteract cryptomining are also conducted. This includes the most recent developments in malicious JavaScript de-obfuscation as well as cryptomining signature creation and detection. Methodologies for heuristic JavaScript behaviour identification and subsequent identification of potential malicious out-liars are also included within the research of the countermeasure analysis. The research revealed that although no longer functional, Coinhive remained as the most prevalent script being used for “in-browser" cryptomining services. While remaining the most prevalent, there was however a significant decline in overall occurrences compared to when coinhive.com was operational. Analysis of the ecosystem hosting \in-browser" mining websites was found to be distributed both geographically as well as in terms of domain categorisations. , Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Computer Science, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
Cryptocurrencies in the future of money and monetary policy
- Authors: Brown, Henry Brandon
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Cryptocurrencies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47495 , vital:40122
- Description: The idiosyncratic allure of cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin, has attracted widespread, if reticent, attention in the financial markets. Since Bitcoin’s introduction in 2008 there has been a growing interest in digital assets possibly supplanting traditional payment methods. Two conceptual questions raised regarding cryptocurrencies are firstly, whether cryptocurrencies meet the traditional functions of money; secondly, what is the future of cryptocurrencies? This dissertation seeks to examine the future of cryptocurrency by reference to money and monetary policy. The further question, whether cryptocurrencies meet the traditional functions of money, is tested via a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis. The study explores both statistical and empirical models, in illustrative comparative detail, provided by analysis which included ADF and KPSS test models, alongside an ARMA(p,q)-GARCH(1,1) model. Cryptocurrencies present both significant benefits, alongside immense shortcomings. They provide the novel ability to conduct anonymous international transactions on a decentralised platform with lower transaction fees. However, the very nature of that anonymity could provide their downfall as much as they open a market for illicit activities. In addition, cryptocurrency’s significant energy consumption through the mining of cryptocurrencies is of concern to environmentalists. The empirical section of the dissertation consists of a comparative analysis between Bitcoin/USD time series to the Rand/USD time series, with specific attention devoted to the level of volatility of each time series. This was important in determining whether cryptocurrencies fulfil the store of value function of money. The dissertation concluded that Bitcoin/USD time series exhibited identifiable adverse characteristics of autocorrelation and ARCH effects, thus suggesting that Bitcoin/USD is strongly associated with volatility. The Rand/USD signified the same effects although of significantly lesser order than that of Bitcoin/USD. Consequently, cryptocurrencies are seen to act more as an asset than a currency. Nonetheless, cryptocurrencies seem likely to grow as a medium of exchange as more and more businesses gain knowledge of the innovation and seek to adopt innovative ways to become more efficient and follow technology trends. Currently, fiat currencies remain superior in the financial market, simply because cryptocurrencies are perceived not to fulfil the traditional functions of money. However in the future, the market share of cryptocurrencies is likely to increase, and so the future of the financial markets will surely include a coexistence of both fiat and cryptocurrencies, as people’s preferences determine where they feel safe to hold their money.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Brown, Henry Brandon
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Cryptocurrencies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47495 , vital:40122
- Description: The idiosyncratic allure of cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin, has attracted widespread, if reticent, attention in the financial markets. Since Bitcoin’s introduction in 2008 there has been a growing interest in digital assets possibly supplanting traditional payment methods. Two conceptual questions raised regarding cryptocurrencies are firstly, whether cryptocurrencies meet the traditional functions of money; secondly, what is the future of cryptocurrencies? This dissertation seeks to examine the future of cryptocurrency by reference to money and monetary policy. The further question, whether cryptocurrencies meet the traditional functions of money, is tested via a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis. The study explores both statistical and empirical models, in illustrative comparative detail, provided by analysis which included ADF and KPSS test models, alongside an ARMA(p,q)-GARCH(1,1) model. Cryptocurrencies present both significant benefits, alongside immense shortcomings. They provide the novel ability to conduct anonymous international transactions on a decentralised platform with lower transaction fees. However, the very nature of that anonymity could provide their downfall as much as they open a market for illicit activities. In addition, cryptocurrency’s significant energy consumption through the mining of cryptocurrencies is of concern to environmentalists. The empirical section of the dissertation consists of a comparative analysis between Bitcoin/USD time series to the Rand/USD time series, with specific attention devoted to the level of volatility of each time series. This was important in determining whether cryptocurrencies fulfil the store of value function of money. The dissertation concluded that Bitcoin/USD time series exhibited identifiable adverse characteristics of autocorrelation and ARCH effects, thus suggesting that Bitcoin/USD is strongly associated with volatility. The Rand/USD signified the same effects although of significantly lesser order than that of Bitcoin/USD. Consequently, cryptocurrencies are seen to act more as an asset than a currency. Nonetheless, cryptocurrencies seem likely to grow as a medium of exchange as more and more businesses gain knowledge of the innovation and seek to adopt innovative ways to become more efficient and follow technology trends. Currently, fiat currencies remain superior in the financial market, simply because cryptocurrencies are perceived not to fulfil the traditional functions of money. However in the future, the market share of cryptocurrencies is likely to increase, and so the future of the financial markets will surely include a coexistence of both fiat and cryptocurrencies, as people’s preferences determine where they feel safe to hold their money.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
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