Measuring the elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: implications for future demand and supply
- Authors: Kosiorek, Sebastian
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa , Electric utilities -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Integrated Resource Plan
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472 , vital:28196
- Description: A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Kosiorek, Sebastian
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa , Electric utilities -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Integrated Resource Plan
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472 , vital:28196
- Description: A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Electricity generation, transmission and distribution policy: a comparative study of Nigeria (1960-2011) and South Africa (1960-2011)
- Authors: Okafor, Chukwuemeka
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Electric power distribution -- Nigeria , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power consumption -- Nigeria , Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power production -- Nigeria , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power transmission -- Nigeria , Electric power transmission -- South Africa , Electricity
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD (in Public Administration)
- Identifier: vital:11660 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007049 , Electric power distribution -- Nigeria , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power consumption -- Nigeria , Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power production -- Nigeria , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power transmission -- Nigeria , Electric power transmission -- South Africa , Electricity
- Description: The electric power policies in Nigeria and South Africa are considered the governments’ intention to provide quality and affordable electricity to the people. A comparative study on the electric power policies focuses on the similarities and differences in the policy approaches, the policy issues that affect electrification, and the impact of the policy issues in achieving the goal of universal access to quality and affordable electricity power in both countries. The methodological approach allows for an in depth textual study on the electric power policy documents in both countries. In Nigeria, the government intends to address the massive demand-supply imbalance and achieve the goal of electrification through reforms that focus on private sector-led growth in the sub-sector. In South Africa, the identification of electrification as a public problem by the post apartheid government leads to an integrated policy framework that focuses on balancing economic concerns with social and environmental considerations. The study identifies electricity provision as a social welfare responsibility of the governments in both countries and examines the policy issues in the context of public welfare. In Nigeria, the policy issues are found to be self serving and not in line with sustainable public interest, given the socio-economic challenges. As a result they, exert less impact on achieving the goal of universal access to quality and affordable electricity in the country. In South Africa, good governance in the sub-sector has enabled the identification of policy issues in line with sustainable public interests of social equity, poverty alleviation and environmental sustainability; and government using public administration agencies to play a key role in service delivery. Recommendations of the study mainly derive from the South African experience on electrification, and are intended to offer some policy-lessons to Nigeria in the sub-sector. The study contributes to new knowledge in the discipline of public administration by opening up new vistas for a comparative analysis of electric power policy issues in both countries in the context of public welfare. Besides, a comparative study on electrification in Nigeria and South Africa from a policy angle contributes to the existing knowledge base in the discipline.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Okafor, Chukwuemeka
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Electric power distribution -- Nigeria , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power consumption -- Nigeria , Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power production -- Nigeria , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power transmission -- Nigeria , Electric power transmission -- South Africa , Electricity
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD (in Public Administration)
- Identifier: vital:11660 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007049 , Electric power distribution -- Nigeria , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power consumption -- Nigeria , Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power production -- Nigeria , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power transmission -- Nigeria , Electric power transmission -- South Africa , Electricity
- Description: The electric power policies in Nigeria and South Africa are considered the governments’ intention to provide quality and affordable electricity to the people. A comparative study on the electric power policies focuses on the similarities and differences in the policy approaches, the policy issues that affect electrification, and the impact of the policy issues in achieving the goal of universal access to quality and affordable electricity power in both countries. The methodological approach allows for an in depth textual study on the electric power policy documents in both countries. In Nigeria, the government intends to address the massive demand-supply imbalance and achieve the goal of electrification through reforms that focus on private sector-led growth in the sub-sector. In South Africa, the identification of electrification as a public problem by the post apartheid government leads to an integrated policy framework that focuses on balancing economic concerns with social and environmental considerations. The study identifies electricity provision as a social welfare responsibility of the governments in both countries and examines the policy issues in the context of public welfare. In Nigeria, the policy issues are found to be self serving and not in line with sustainable public interest, given the socio-economic challenges. As a result they, exert less impact on achieving the goal of universal access to quality and affordable electricity in the country. In South Africa, good governance in the sub-sector has enabled the identification of policy issues in line with sustainable public interests of social equity, poverty alleviation and environmental sustainability; and government using public administration agencies to play a key role in service delivery. Recommendations of the study mainly derive from the South African experience on electrification, and are intended to offer some policy-lessons to Nigeria in the sub-sector. The study contributes to new knowledge in the discipline of public administration by opening up new vistas for a comparative analysis of electric power policy issues in both countries in the context of public welfare. Besides, a comparative study on electrification in Nigeria and South Africa from a policy angle contributes to the existing knowledge base in the discipline.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The impact of electricity on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Ndlovu, Vanessa Constance
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Power resources -- South Africa , Electric power consumption -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9022 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1019787
- Description: Since 1994, with many of its sanctions lifted, South Africa became a stronger economic power house in Africa leading the continent‘s industrial output and mineral production and generating a large proportion of Africa‘s electricity. The South African economy has since been growing at a fast pace which has also led to an increase in the demand for electricity. South Africa‘s generating capacity has remained constant through a consistently increasing demand, leading to an electricity shortfall. An immediate threat to South Africa‘s continued economic growth is a capacity constraint in terms of energy supply. Increasing economic growth coupled with the rapid industrialisation and mass electrification programme of the last decade, as well as planned and unplanned maintenance and coal stock pile problems led, in January 2008, to demand out stripping supply. With electricity being an important component of economic development, it is vital that the impact of the supply of electricity on the economic growth of the country be well understood. Currently few studies have been done on the analysis of this relationship in South Africa specifically and how this relationship impacts specific sectors of the economy that contributes to the total GDP of the country. This study has assumed rigorous application of Granger technique with proper statistical verification of assumptions, selection of relevant variables and provides trusted statistical forecasts. In an attempt to understand this relationship, an Econometric model has been developed to assess the impact of electricity supply and price on the economic growth of South Africa. In the empirical analysis section of this study it was found that with a forecast for GDP, past values of electricity prices and coal sales may be used to forecast electricity supply. It was also found that if we have a forecast value of future electricity price we can use past values of electricity supply and coal sales to forecast GDP for the next quarter. We also found that electricity supply is granger caused by GDP; electricity price; and total coal sales. And that economic growth is granger caused by electricity supply; electricity price; and total coal sales. It was concluded that in order for government to improve the economic growth of South Africa, a major focus on the energy industry is needed to ensure sustainable supply capacity. The energy sector, as was shown in the study, has a major impact in the functioning of the Gross Domestic Product of the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Ndlovu, Vanessa Constance
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Power resources -- South Africa , Electric power consumption -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9022 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1019787
- Description: Since 1994, with many of its sanctions lifted, South Africa became a stronger economic power house in Africa leading the continent‘s industrial output and mineral production and generating a large proportion of Africa‘s electricity. The South African economy has since been growing at a fast pace which has also led to an increase in the demand for electricity. South Africa‘s generating capacity has remained constant through a consistently increasing demand, leading to an electricity shortfall. An immediate threat to South Africa‘s continued economic growth is a capacity constraint in terms of energy supply. Increasing economic growth coupled with the rapid industrialisation and mass electrification programme of the last decade, as well as planned and unplanned maintenance and coal stock pile problems led, in January 2008, to demand out stripping supply. With electricity being an important component of economic development, it is vital that the impact of the supply of electricity on the economic growth of the country be well understood. Currently few studies have been done on the analysis of this relationship in South Africa specifically and how this relationship impacts specific sectors of the economy that contributes to the total GDP of the country. This study has assumed rigorous application of Granger technique with proper statistical verification of assumptions, selection of relevant variables and provides trusted statistical forecasts. In an attempt to understand this relationship, an Econometric model has been developed to assess the impact of electricity supply and price on the economic growth of South Africa. In the empirical analysis section of this study it was found that with a forecast for GDP, past values of electricity prices and coal sales may be used to forecast electricity supply. It was also found that if we have a forecast value of future electricity price we can use past values of electricity supply and coal sales to forecast GDP for the next quarter. We also found that electricity supply is granger caused by GDP; electricity price; and total coal sales. And that economic growth is granger caused by electricity supply; electricity price; and total coal sales. It was concluded that in order for government to improve the economic growth of South Africa, a major focus on the energy industry is needed to ensure sustainable supply capacity. The energy sector, as was shown in the study, has a major impact in the functioning of the Gross Domestic Product of the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
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