Predictability of Geomagnetically Induced Currents using neural networks
- Authors: Lotz, Stefanus Ignatius
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Advanced Composition Explorer (Artificial satellite) , Geomagnetism , Electromagnetic induction , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5483 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005269 , Advanced Composition Explorer (Artificial satellite) , Geomagnetism , Electromagnetic induction , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence
- Description: It is a well documented fact that Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC’s) poses a significant threat to ground-based electric conductor networks like oil pipelines, railways and powerline networks. A study is undertaken to determine the feasibility of using artificial neural network models to predict GIC occurrence in the Southern African power grid. The magnitude of an induced current at a specific location on the Earth’s surface is directly related to the temporal derivative of the geomagnetic field (specifically its horizontal components) at that point. Hence, the focus of the problem is on the prediction of the temporal variations in the horizontal geomagnetic field (@Bx/@t and @By/@t). Artificial neural networks are used to predict @Bx/@t and @By/@t measured at Hermanus, South Africa (34.27◦ S, 19.12◦ E) with a 30 minute prediction lead time. As input parameters to the neural networks, insitu solar wind measurements made by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite are used. The results presented here compare well with similar models developed at high-latitude locations (e.g. Sweden, Finland, Canada) where extensive GIC research has been undertaken. It is concluded that it would indeed be feasible to use a neural network model to predict GIC occurrence in the Southern African power grid, provided that GIC measurements, powerline configuration and network parameters are made available.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The South Atlantic radiation anomaly
- Authors: Van Rooyen, H O
- Date: 1964
- Subjects: Terrestrial radiation , Atmospheric radiation , Geomagnetism , Electron precipitation , South Atlantic Ocean -- Radiation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5546 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013427
- Description: Part I. (1) An elementary treatment of the motion of charged particles in a magnetic field is presented. The concept of guiding centre motion is introduced, and is used in outlining the theory of particle drifts. (2 ) The motion of charged particles in the geomagnetic field is discussed, and the concept of adiabatic invariance introduced. (3) Mc Iliwains coordinates for mapping the distribution of charged particles trapped in the geometric field are defined and briefly discussed. (4) A survey of present knowledge of the Van Allen radiation zones is made. Particular attention is given to the distribution, characteristics, and variability of the trapped radiation. (5) The Cape Town magnetic anomaly, the Brazil radiation anomaly and the South Atlantic radiation anomaly are discussed. The electrons entering the South Atlantic radiation anomaly are shown to be those monitored over Iowa by the US satellite Injun I. Part 11. (1) It is shown how the geomagnetic field can, at high altitudes and over relatively short distances, be approximated by the field of a monopole. A new method is developed which enables one to plot the energy absorbed from an electron (which moves in a monopole field in the atmosphere) against altitude, given the initial energy and pitch angle of the electron. Some numerical computations using this method are described, and the results discussed. These results are used, in conjunction with US satellite Injun I for the Iowa region, to estimate the energy inout to the atmosphere in the South Atlantic radiation anomaly. The main approximations and simplifying assumptions made in this treatment, are discussed. (2) Geophysical effects generally recognized to be connected with the precipitation of charged particles are discussed. In the course of this discussion the two main theories of the connection between the radiation zones and the auroras are examined. (3) A preliminary discussion, based on the work summarized in point (1) of detectable geophysical events associated with the precipitation of electrons into the South Atlantic radiation anomaly is given. It is concluded that auroral emission, X-ray bursts, and ionospheric ionization in the E region should be more frequent and pronounced in the South Atlantic radiation anomaly than in any other region of comparable invariant latitudes and that the effects of atmospheric heating by precipitated electrons should be detectable over the anomaly. (4) An assessment is made of the value of the method referred to in point (1). Suggestions for its modification and extension are put forward. It is suggested that if more extensive rocket and satellite data on the low energy component of the electron flux become available, this method can be employed in a rigorous theoretical investigation of the South Atlantic radiation anomaly. Summary, p. 98-100.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1964