Modelling storm-time TEC changes using linear and non-linear techniques
- Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean Claude
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Magnetic storms , Astronomy -- Computer programs , Imaging systems in astronomy , Ionospheric storms , Electrons -- Measurement , Magnetosphere -- Observations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/92908 , vital:30762
- Description: Statistical models based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis and non-linear regression analysis (NLRA) were developed for the purpose of estimating the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms. The well-known least squares method (LSM) and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (MHA) were used as optimization techniques to determine the unknown coefficients of the developed analytical expressions. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System (MIDAS) tomographic inversion algorithm were also applied to storm-time TEC modelling/reconstruction for various latitudes of the African sector and surrounding areas. This work presents some of the first statistical modeling of the mid-latitude and low-latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic storms that includes solar, geomagnetic and neutral wind drivers.Development and validation of the empirical models were based on storm-time TEC data derived from the global positioning system (GPS) measurements over ground receivers within Africa and surrounding areas. The storm criterion applied was Dst 6 −50 nT and/or Kp > 4. The performance evaluation of MIDAS compared with ANNs to reconstruct storm-time TEC over the African low- and mid-latitude regions showed that MIDAS and ANNs provide comparable results. Their respective mean absolute error (MAE) values were 4.81 and 4.18 TECU. The ANN model was, however, found to perform 24.37 % better than MIDAS at estimating storm-time TEC for low latitudes, while MIDAS is 13.44 % more accurate than ANN for the mid-latitudes. When their performances are compared with the IRI model, both MIDAS and ANN model were found to provide more accurate storm-time TEC reconstructions for the African low- and mid-latitude regions. A comparative study of the performances of EOF, NLRA, ANN, and IRI models to estimate TEC during geomagnetic storm conditions over various latitudes showed that the ANN model is about 10 %, 26 %, and 58 % more accurate than EOF, NLRA, and IRI models, respectively, while EOF was found to perform 15 %, and 44 % better than NLRA and IRI, respectively. It was further found that the NLRA model is 25 % more accurate than the IRI model. We have also investigated for the first time, the role of meridional neutral winds (from the Horizontal Wind Model) to storm-time TEC modelling in the low latitude, northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions of the African sector, based on ANN models. Statistics have shown that the inclusion of the meridional wind velocity in TEC modelling during geomagnetic storms leads to percentage improvements of about 5 % for the low latitude, 10 % and 5 % for the northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions, respectively. High-latitude storm-induced winds and the inter-hemispheric blows of the meridional winds from summer to winter hemisphere have been suggested to be associated with these improvements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean Claude
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Magnetic storms , Astronomy -- Computer programs , Imaging systems in astronomy , Ionospheric storms , Electrons -- Measurement , Magnetosphere -- Observations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/92908 , vital:30762
- Description: Statistical models based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis and non-linear regression analysis (NLRA) were developed for the purpose of estimating the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms. The well-known least squares method (LSM) and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (MHA) were used as optimization techniques to determine the unknown coefficients of the developed analytical expressions. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System (MIDAS) tomographic inversion algorithm were also applied to storm-time TEC modelling/reconstruction for various latitudes of the African sector and surrounding areas. This work presents some of the first statistical modeling of the mid-latitude and low-latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic storms that includes solar, geomagnetic and neutral wind drivers.Development and validation of the empirical models were based on storm-time TEC data derived from the global positioning system (GPS) measurements over ground receivers within Africa and surrounding areas. The storm criterion applied was Dst 6 −50 nT and/or Kp > 4. The performance evaluation of MIDAS compared with ANNs to reconstruct storm-time TEC over the African low- and mid-latitude regions showed that MIDAS and ANNs provide comparable results. Their respective mean absolute error (MAE) values were 4.81 and 4.18 TECU. The ANN model was, however, found to perform 24.37 % better than MIDAS at estimating storm-time TEC for low latitudes, while MIDAS is 13.44 % more accurate than ANN for the mid-latitudes. When their performances are compared with the IRI model, both MIDAS and ANN model were found to provide more accurate storm-time TEC reconstructions for the African low- and mid-latitude regions. A comparative study of the performances of EOF, NLRA, ANN, and IRI models to estimate TEC during geomagnetic storm conditions over various latitudes showed that the ANN model is about 10 %, 26 %, and 58 % more accurate than EOF, NLRA, and IRI models, respectively, while EOF was found to perform 15 %, and 44 % better than NLRA and IRI, respectively. It was further found that the NLRA model is 25 % more accurate than the IRI model. We have also investigated for the first time, the role of meridional neutral winds (from the Horizontal Wind Model) to storm-time TEC modelling in the low latitude, northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions of the African sector, based on ANN models. Statistics have shown that the inclusion of the meridional wind velocity in TEC modelling during geomagnetic storms leads to percentage improvements of about 5 % for the low latitude, 10 % and 5 % for the northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions, respectively. High-latitude storm-induced winds and the inter-hemispheric blows of the meridional winds from summer to winter hemisphere have been suggested to be associated with these improvements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Statistical study of traveling ionospheric disturbances over South Africa
- Authors: Mahlangu, Daniel Fiso
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Gravity waves , Magnetic storms
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76387 , vital:30556
- Description: This thesis provides a statistical analysis of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) in South Africa. The velocities of the TIDs were determined from total electron content (TEC) maps using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The periods were determined using Morlet function in wavelet analysis. The TIDs were grouped into four categories: daytime, twilight, nighttime TIDs, and those TIDs that occurred during magnetic storms. It was found that daytime medium scale TIDs (MSTIDs) propagated equatorward in all seasons (summer, autumn, winter, and spring), with velocities of about 114 to 213 m/s. Their maximum occurrence was in winter between 15:00 and 16:00 LT. The daytime large scale (TIDs) LSTIDs propagated equatorward with velocities of approximately 455 to 767 m/s. Their highest occurrence was in summer, between 12:00-13:00 LT. Most of the these TIDs (about 78%) were observed during the passing of the morning solar terminator. This implied that the morning terminator was more effective in instigating TIDs. Only a few nighttime TIDs were observed and therefore their behavior could not be statistically inferred. The TIDs that occurred during magnetically disturbed conditions propagated equatorward. This indicated that their source mechanism was atmospheric gravity waves generated at the onset of geomagnetic storms.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mahlangu, Daniel Fiso
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Gravity waves , Magnetic storms
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76387 , vital:30556
- Description: This thesis provides a statistical analysis of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) in South Africa. The velocities of the TIDs were determined from total electron content (TEC) maps using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The periods were determined using Morlet function in wavelet analysis. The TIDs were grouped into four categories: daytime, twilight, nighttime TIDs, and those TIDs that occurred during magnetic storms. It was found that daytime medium scale TIDs (MSTIDs) propagated equatorward in all seasons (summer, autumn, winter, and spring), with velocities of about 114 to 213 m/s. Their maximum occurrence was in winter between 15:00 and 16:00 LT. The daytime large scale (TIDs) LSTIDs propagated equatorward with velocities of approximately 455 to 767 m/s. Their highest occurrence was in summer, between 12:00-13:00 LT. Most of the these TIDs (about 78%) were observed during the passing of the morning solar terminator. This implied that the morning terminator was more effective in instigating TIDs. Only a few nighttime TIDs were observed and therefore their behavior could not be statistically inferred. The TIDs that occurred during magnetically disturbed conditions propagated equatorward. This indicated that their source mechanism was atmospheric gravity waves generated at the onset of geomagnetic storms.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
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